Risk Model

(RM 1.0)

Mar 04, 2014 @ 22:10 by Jamie Acutt MIMAS

The following article is an interactive version of my research paper: Acutt, J (2013); Risk in Hand-to-hand Combat

Make a risk assessment

Based upon my assessment of the situation, it appears that my opponents are to cause me harm. They are going to attack me using , whilst aiming to cause trauma to my parts. If this is the case, then it seems highly likely that I'll be hit .
  • The Risk Model is unique to Eskirmology, but is rightly an important factor for all considerations of combat. This important theory, which is central to the Eskirmological Approach, attempts to identify the discrete factors which contribute to Risk in combat.

    Eskirmological Theory maintains that all Combat Systems (i.e. Martial Arts in the case of Hand-to-hand or Interpersonal combat) are solutions to the problem of Risk. By identifying the factors which constitute Risk, and noting the degrees in which they manifest, we may establish a ‘Risk Scale’ and explicitly state the fundamental differences between Restricted Fighting with its sub-types (i.e. ‘play fighting’, tussling, sparring etc) and Unrestricted Fighting with it’s sub-types (i.e. brawling, duelling, historical regimented fighting etc).

    Assessing Risk in interpersonal combat

    One of the most important models in Operational Risk Assessment (ORA), or Operational Risk Management (ORM) is the principle of SPE, which refers to the tripartite components which define Risk; Severity, Probability and Exposure rate. This kind of Risk Assessment is designed to understand the risks so that preventative measures may be taken where required, or ameliorative action may be taken to reduce the possibilities of said risk. It is important to understand from the outset that risk is defined by that which is predictable, and therefore the components of that risk should be imaginable and credible.

    This model is usually used to assess risk in corporate environments, and used as a ‘conversation starter’ in order to resolve potential risk amongst departments. By taking the Probability of a risks occurrence, multiplied by the Severity, or Unit Risk and then multiplying by the Exposure, or number of Unit Risks, we may derive a Risk Rating. The final equation derived from these values is:

    S x P x E = Risk Rating

    Or,

    Severity (1, 2, 3, 4, or 5,) x Probability (2, 3, 4, or 5,) x Exposure (0, 1, 2, 3, or 4)

    [1-5] x [2-5] x [1-4] = [1-100]

    Severity

    The biggest risk in combat is accepting trauma and damage to the body, and in which case, we must generate a means by which those Actions may be rated. This refers to the ability to quantify the risk inherent in any singular action, (what I term an ‘Action Rating’ - AR), which I propose may be derived from the type of action as well as its intended target. From this we may predict the kind of affect it is liable to have on a recipient.

    In combat, we may assume that our concern is the collisions or damage to the human body as a result of exposure to force. There are therefore two items to consider:

    1. The weapon - The kinetic energy or momentum of the object colliding
    2. The target - The kinetic energy or moment of the object collided

    Taking these considerations into account, we may generate a simple two-dimensional array to provide metric values:

    Blow to

     

    Vitals

    Operational

    Local

     

     

    Blow from

    100

    95

    80

    Sharp object

    85

    80

    50

    Blunt object

    75

    40

    1

    Human body

    Probability

    Probability is measured principally by the ability for an opponent to bring an intended outcome to fruition. In this case, it is causing us harm. If he is highly determined to do so, then the Probability of him succeeding in this aim increases.

    Exposure

    Number of attacks to cope with:
    Number of attackers:
    No of attackers x No of blows
    Overall exposure:

    The Risk Matrix

    The following table outlines all the decision values which could affect the outcome.

    Type

    Definition

    Assessment

    Severity

     

    Blows to

    5

    Blow from

     

    Vital point (results in death)

    Operational point (results in functional reduction)

    Results in local trauma

    Sharp force object

    100 (5)

    95 (5)

    80 (5)

    Blunt force object

    85 (5)

    80 (5)

    50 (3)

    Human body part

    75 (5)

    40 (3)

    1 (1)

    Probability

    Likelihood of Escalation

    Impossible

    0

    5

    Unlikely under normal conditions

    2

    About 50-50

    3

    Greater than 50%

    4

    Very Likely to Happen

    5

    Exposure

     

    Number of exposures

    4

    Number of Agents

     

    1

    20

    50

    80+

    1

    1 (1)

    20 (1)

    50 (2)

    80+ (3)

    2

    2 (1)

    40 (1)

    100 (3)

    160+ (4)

    3

    3 (1)

    60 (2)

    150 (4)

    240+ (4)

    4+

    4+ (1)

    80+ (3)

    200+ (4)

    320+ (4)

    Known issues with RM 1.0:

    Although the SPE Model is useful to draw strong difference between a Sparring Paradigm and a Battlefield Paradigm, it still doesn't effectively reconcile the following components:

    • It does not currently assign enough metrical bias to the highest severity by default. However, the nature of the formula does allow for increase based upon Probability, so although in theory this component does not have enough bias, the model does still work in application.

    These will be issues we will be looking to resolve whilst working towards RM 1.1

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